The Arctic Alaska Study basin was estimated to contain a mean average of 29.9 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 221 trillion cubic feet of gas.  The Alaskan Arctic ranked only second to Western Siberia in estimated oil and gas deposits, yet first in estimated world Arctic oil deposits.  The USGS report stressed that the findings are not based on any known or proven quantities but rather geologic estimation of mostly unexplored regions.  New computer modeling and statistical analysis was devised to translate geologic understanding of subsurface formations for the report.  The massive potential for energy however, is the overwhelming conclusion derived.  That 30% of the world’s gas and 11% of the worlds oil deposits are estimated to lay in the world’s Arctic regions and the Alaskan Arctic is top of the list for oil. 

The 10-02 Area of ANWR was studied by the USGS In 1998 and estimated to contain 16-42 billion barrels of oil and up to 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.  These figures were factored into the latest USGS study.  What, of that amount, is technically recoverable or economically recoverable is not addressed in the latest report.  Any fields below 50 million barrels of oil were not included.   Current onshore wells at Prudhoe Bay which has already pumped 15 billion barrels of oil to date maintain a rough average 60% technical recovery rate.  At world oil prices above 50$ most all Alaskan Arctic oil is deemed economically recoverable.

The report does not go into any analysis of transportation and infrastructure problems, nor technological questions of extraction considering most of the offshore resources (84%) are near permanently under a cap of moving sea ice.  Currently the only method in Alaska to retrieve oil is via the Trans-Alaska Pipeline (TAPS) which starts a Prudhoe Bay.  No gas pipeline currently exists and thus all natural gas in Alaska’s Arctic is stranded.  The current Trans-Alaska Pipeline is 1/3rd full pumping 700,000 barrel per day. The USGS report estimates that the amount of natural gas outnumbers oil by a 3 to 1 margin.  Oil from other regions of the Alaskan Arctic would need to be accessed and transported via feeder pipelines to the head of TAPS in order to keep it operational. 

The report might be of interest in the current energy debate on Capitol Hill in that it shows how much potential energy already exists in this country compared to other nations.  America however, imports 60% of its oil and this, along with natural gas imports, are set to increase dramatically in the next 10 years according to the Energy Information Administration.  Congressional blocking of ANWR and Outer Continental Shelf exploration is the reason these Alaskan resources are not being accessed.  Alaskans overwhelmingly support development in its Arctic areas.

Read the Science Magazine announcement of the report. (pdf)