Predictable 

Anchorage Times editorial

Thursday, May 21, 1998

I T WAS NOT surprising that the U.S. Geological Survey, after three years of comprehensive reevaluation of historic seismic data by dozens of government scientists, has doubled its best guess of the potential oil reserves beneath the coastal plain of ANWR.  

Nor was it surprising to see the daffy reaction to the USGS's reassessment that came from the national environmental lobby and from some politicians back East. "Irrelevant" was how one congressional Democrat saw the USGS report, according to the Washington Post.  

We can only imagine the kind of twit who would dismiss as meaningless the most promising site in the United States for a major petroleum discovery -- one that potentially could supply fuel to the nation for a quarter of a century or longer.  

The latest estimates confirm that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge remains the nation's best oil prospect. According to the USGS, odds are good that there are between 11 billion and 31 billion barrels of oil beneath the coastal plain. The recoverable amount is estimated to be between 6 billion and 16 billion barrels.  

This is more than double the amount of recoverable oil estimated by the Department of Interior 11 years ago in its initial study of the coastal plain. And it is many, many times greater than the meaningless estimate the department publicized in 1995 after a two-day, seat-of-the-pants review that was nothing more than a bogus assessment to provide President Clinton cover when he subsequently vetoed legislation to open ANWR.  

Given the oil industry's success in finding new reservoirs on state land around Prudhoe Bay, and given its ability to use new technology to reassess historic field data, the revised ANWR numbers were predictable. The question is, what will come of it?

The Clinton/Gore team is unlikely to endorse an effort to open ANWR. Just the opposite. Administration officials panned the report and said the decision to keep the coastal plain closed to development would not be revisited while Clinton is in the White House.  

But surely the administration will feel increasing pressure to change its adamant opposition. Sen. Frank Murkowski, for example, is proposing that the federal government fund 3-D seismic testing of the region. "USGS has good theoretical expertise, but their estimates are hamstrung by use of old data," he said. "You can now obtain detailed images of the subsurface geology with little or no impact on the environmental and we ought to do so."  

Absolutely. Additional scientific work might provide even more evidence of ANWR's rich oil potential.

Committee.