"What ifs" for heavy oil, NPR-A and ANWR produce staggering numbers for Alaska

By Kristen Nelson
PNA News Editor

If there is no additional development of conventional oil on the North Slope, a 10-20 percent recovery of the estimated 30 billion barrels of heavy oil in place could stabilize production at 1.3-1.5 million barrels per day for several years.

But, if conventional oil development were allowed in both the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska and mean reserve estimates were found and if 50 percent of the estimated 30 billion barrels of heavy oil in place could be recovered, the trans-Alaska pipeline could be running at rates of 2.2 million barrels per day -- above the peak hit in the 1980s -- for two decades next century, and would still be running at rates of more than 1 million barrels a day until almost mid century.

Those estimates were presented at the U.S. Department of Energy's Alaska heavy oil workshop in Girdwood on Aug. 4 by petroleum engineer Floyd Wiesepape of DOE's Energy Information Administration, which provides oil and gas resource and supply assessments. The estimates combine current production, announced development and estimates of heavy oil in place, alone with the mean of U.S. Geological Survey estimates of undiscovered conventional oil across the entire North Slope. The EIA analysis concluded that heavy oil development would not displace conventional oil development but noted two requirements for heavy oil to contribute significantly to North Slope production: an economic method must be found to produce heavy oil and its development must be accomplished before minimum pipeline capacity is reached.

The 3 billion or 6 billion barrels of heavy oil, Wiesepape said, represent a 10-year development begun in 2002. The figures for development of resources in NPR-A and ANWR were based on a 10-year delay in that development and then 25 years of conventional oil development. Estimates for development of 15 billion barrels of heavy oil also assumed a 25-year development period.

Aug. 31, 1998